Has Portugal's Crime Rate Doubled Due to Immigration?

What They Are Saying

Several Portuguese politicians, particularly from populist parties, have claimed that crime in Portugal has “doubled” or “skyrocketed” as a direct result of increased immigration. These claims intensified during the 2024-2025 political cycle and are frequently shared on social media.

What The Documents Show

The Official Crime Statistics

The RASI (Relatório Anual de Segurança Interna) is Portugal’s official annual internal security report, compiled by law enforcement agencies. The data shows:

Year	Total Recorded Crimes	Change
2019	335,067	baseline
2020	298,457	-10.9% (COVID)
2021	300,886	+0.8%
2022	319,025	+6.0%
2023	312,877	-1.9%
2024	294,741	-5.8%

Overall trend 2019-2024: -12.0%

During this same period, the foreign resident population in Portugal increased from approximately 590,000 to over 1,000,000.

The Disconnect

Crime decreased while immigration increased. These two facts cannot both be true and support the claim that immigration caused crime to double.

Some politicians point to specific crime categories (such as robbery in Lisbon) that saw temporary increases. This is a common cherry-picking tactic. Take one subcategory that went up. Ignore the overall trend that went down. Attribute the subcategory to immigration without evidence. Present it as the whole picture.

What About Per-Capita Rates?

Even when adjusted for population growth (including immigration), the per-capita crime rate in Portugal decreased. More people, less crime per person.

Portugal’s overall crime rate decreased by 12% between 2019 and 2024, a period of significant immigration growth. The claim that crime “doubled due to immigration” is contradicted by the government’s own security report.

The RASI is a public document. PORDATA publishes the time series. The data is there for anyone to check.