Is Factory Construction Up 41% Under the Trump Administration?
“Factory construction is up 41%.”
While factory construction spending remains historically high, the 41% growth occurred during the previous administration (2021-2024). Official data shows spending has actually fallen since President Trump took office in January 2025.
What They Are Saying
In remarks made in the Oval Office on February 3, 2026, President Donald Trump claimed that “factory construction is up 41%,” attributing this boom to his administration’s policies. The statement implies a current surge in manufacturing investment compared to when he took office.
What The Documents Show
Official data from the U.S. Census Bureau contradicts the timeline of this claim. While the U.S. did experience a massive surge in manufacturing construction spending, that growth occurred primarily between 2022 and 2024, prior to the current administration.
According to the Census Bureau’s seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) data:
| Period | Spending (Annual Rate) | Context |
|---|---|---|
| January 2021 | ~$75 billion | Pre-boom baseline |
| June 2024 (Peak) | ~$240.1 billion | Height of CHIPS Act / IRA implementation |
| January 2025 (Trump Inauguration) | ~$230.8 billion | Start of current term |
| October 2025 (Latest Data) | ~$214.1 billion | Current level |
The data indicates that spending has declined by approximately 7.2% since President Trump took office in January 2025, and is down roughly 9.6% year-over-year.
Where the 41% Comes From
The administration calculated the 41% by comparing the average spending during the first eight months of 2025 ($226.1 billion annualized) against the average across all four years of the prior administration ($161.1 billion). This method inherits the massive spending surge that began under the previous administration as though it were a current achievement, while simultaneously masking the month-to-month contraction happening in real time.
| Comparison | Figure | What it actually shows |
|---|---|---|
| 8-month 2025 average | $226.1 billion | Still elevated from prior-era projects |
| 4-year prior admin average | $161.1 billion | Includes the low 2021 baseline before the boom |
| Difference | ~41% | Growth that occurred between 2021-2024, not in 2025 |
While spending remains well above pre-2020 levels, the current trend is downward, not upward. The American Institute of Architects projects an additional 4% decline in manufacturing construction spending throughout 2026.
Experts note that major projects often take years to break ground, meaning many facilities currently under construction were authorized and funded during the prior administration. There is no evidence in the federal data of a new 41% spike in construction spending commencing in 2025 or 2026. The Census Bureau publishes this data monthly. The FRED time series is public. Anyone can verify the trend.